Published October 24, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is up in the Primary market, but contracts are still down

The number that changes things most for sellers right now: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 520 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 17.4% from the same period a year ago. More competition means your price and condition matter more than they did last year.

At the same time, pending sales across the Primary market fell 10.8% year over year, landing at 653. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked that drop for the three months ending August 31, 2026. Fewer signed contracts tells you buyers are moving carefully, not quickly.

This lines up with what is happening nationally. The National Association of Realtors reported that inventory rose to 1.60 million homes in September 2026. Nationally, pending home sales were also down 11.3% year over year, according to Realtor.com on October 22, 2026. So the pattern here is not unique to this market.

What the ZIP codes show

Not every ZIP moved the same way. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 105 homes for sale in ZIP 20190 in Reston, up 78% from a year ago. That is the sharpest inventory jump in the market. Median days on market there also grew 4 days longer, to 39 days. Sellers in that ZIP are feeling more pressure than most.

ZIP 20191, also in Reston, told a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed pending sales there up 7.4% year over year, to 131. More than half of homes, 51.9%, went under contract within two weeks of listing. Prices rose 5.7% to a median of $665,000. That ZIP is moving faster than the market average.

In Ashburn, ZIP 20148 saw pending sales fall 15.8% year over year to 213. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $860,000, up 2.3%. Homes still sold close to asking, at 99.9% of list price. But fewer buyers are in the pipeline.

ZIP 20147 in Ashburn had the only median price dip. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a 2.7% drop, to $700,000. Homes there still sold in a median of 33 days, 3 days faster than a year ago. Not every signal points the same direction, even within one town.

Rates are adding to buyer caution

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. Realtor.com reported the average mortgage rate on the market at 7.40% on October 22, 2026. Rates above 7% make monthly payments harder to absorb, and that slows decisions.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home prices rose 1.3% in September 2026. Prices are still moving up nationally, just slowly. That matches what the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows for most of this market.

What this means if you are selling

More homes for sale means buyers have choices they did not have a year ago. Fewer pending sales means some sellers are waiting longer than expected. Price your home carefully from the start. Homes that are priced well are still selling close to list. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed sale-to-list ratios of 99.9% or better in three of the four ZIPs.

The share of homes going above list price rose in ZIP 20148, up 9.3 points to 28.9%. In ZIP 20191 it rose 11.6 points to 41.4%. Those homes were likely priced right and in good condition. That is the clearest signal this market is sending right now.

These are market-wide numbers for the three months ending August 31, 2026. One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. A single block, a school boundary or a floor plan type can change the picture entirely.